Bitcoin on the Brink: Will It Defy the Odds?

  • Bitcoin reacts to Jerome Powell’s announcement, alongside other assets.
  • Bitcoin shows resilience with a stunning 13% hammer candlestick at key support levels.
  • Bitcoin trading range is tightening between $63,000 and $70,000, with $64,600 as a pivotal resistance.

Bitcoin’s Fate: Skyrocket, Stumble, or Stagnate?

Bitcoin’s latest move saw a powerful candle at the weekly close, rallying approximately 13% from the week’s lowest point of $56,500 after Powell’s FOMC speech last Thursday lifted markets across the board. However, after the weekly candle’s close, Bitcoin remains trading sideways in a tight channel between approximately $62,500 and $64,600. Bulls and bears are divided: some see this as the start of a new rally toward the all-time high, while others predict this could be the final phase of distribution before a major drop to support near $50,000.

Battle of Perspectives: Tech Analysis vs. Fundamentals

Bitcoin Technicals: A Bullish Spark or Bearish Dive?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,500, continuing to consolidate within the $62,500 to $64,600 range. My approach involves focusing on larger timeframes, including the weekly and daily candles. From a technical standpoint, we have the weekly hammer at a key level of support, and the daily candle has retested that same level while also remaining above the midpoint range of the CCI on the daily chart, which may indicate renewed buying momentum after a significant sell-off.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart – https://www.tradingview.com/x/iWHKX57Y/
Bitcoin Daily Chart – https://www.tradingview.com/x/uH0MbXFj/

I am also considering the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which could propel Bitcoin back to the top of the range. However, this potential pattern is riskier and requires a neckline break followed by a retest for confirmation.

4HR Inverse Head & Shoulders – https://www.tradingview.com/x/6SuBCTMD/

The Hard Truth: Fundamentals Speak Louder

According to CoinShares’ latest report, asset managers like Ark Invest, Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, ProShares, and 21Shares have experienced a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, amounting to $251 million in the last week alone. In the previous three weeks, the cumulative outflows exceeded $1 billion, with the bulk stemming from U.S.-based funds, which recorded $504 million in net outflows just last week. This figure far outweighs the $307 million net inflows into the newly launched spot bitcoin and ether ETFs in Hong Kong.

I hope this week’s segment has provided valuable insights. Join us for an Empire Live Market Scan every Wednesday night at 7 pm for a FREE session with a coach. Simply register on the Empire Crypto Trading Social Media and Educational Platform.

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